The Golden State Warriors look to buck a recent trend when they host the Utah Jazz on Tuesday. The Warriors (40-15) have lost five of their last seven meetings with the Jazz (32-24), and split the two games so far this season, both of which were played in Utah. Tip-off at Oracle Arena is set for 10:30 p.m. ET. Golden State has played well of late and is 15-1 since Jan. 5. The Warriors have also won six of seven on their home court and are 8.5-point favorites in the latest Jazz vs. Warriors odds, the same as where the line opened. The over-under for total points scored is 229, up one from the opener. You’ll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying about the game before making any Jazz vs. Warriors picks of your own.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBApicks this season. It entered Week 18 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling 212-158 record on all top-rated picks, returning more than $4,000 to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA picks against the spread, entering Week 18 on a blistering 41-26 run. Anybody following it is way up.

Now the model has dialed in on Warriors vs. Jazz. We can tell you it is leaning under, but it has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. That one is available exclusively at SportsLine. 

The model knows that despite the Warriors’ recent woes against Utah, Golden State has had the upper hand in the series since the 2013-2014 season, going 15-6 against the Jazz during that stretch. In the two earlier meetings this season, the Warriors’ top two scorers – Stephen Curry (28.6 points per game) and Kevin Durant (27.5) – had big games. Durant scored 38 in Golden State’s Oct. 19 win and added 30 in the Dec. 19 loss. Curry scored 31 and 32 points, respectively. 

Klay Thompson (22.1 points per game), who has been hot of late, was held to 12 points both games, which proved to be critical in the Jazz’s win. But Thompson has scored no fewer than 25 points the last four games and had 44 against the Lakers on Jan. 21.

But just because Golden State has been hot of late doesn’t guarantee it’ll cover the Warriors vs. Jazz spread on Tuesday. 

That’s because after a 20-21 start to the season, the Jazz have steadily climbed the Western Conference standings and are just 1.5 games out of fourth in the NBA playoff bracket. Utah has won seven of its past 10 games and will look to take advantage of several recent trends. The Warriors are just 11-15-1 against the spread as home favorites and only 24-30-1 against the number overall.

Guard Donovan Mitchell (22.4 points per game) leads the Jazz in scoring and has equaled or surpassed his scoring average in eight of the past 10 games. Center Rudy Gobert (15.2 points, 12.8 rebounds) has also had a strong 10-game stretch in which he scored his average or more eight times and equaled or surpassed his rebounding average seven times. 

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